Emerging World Order Sco And Pakistan 351545

With rising China, resurgent Russian and realignment of regional and global dynamics, the role and significance of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has increased manifold. The Summit of SCO was the first for Pakistan and India as full of the organization, which brings new opportunities and hope as well as challenges for the region. This brief briefly reviews the key themes of the Summit and foresees Pakistan’s role in it. short-sighted and closed-door policies,’ ‘uphold WTO rules, and ‘ the multilateral trading system’ to ‘build an open world economy.’

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he 18th Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was held at Qingdao, Shandong province of China, on 9-10 June 2018. It was the first SCO Summit attended by Pakistan and India following their accession as full of SCO. The SCO Summit took place in the backdrop of an emerging World Order characterized by a shift from the West (Atlantic) to the East (Asia & Pacific), the phenomenal economic rise of China during last four decades and its incremental military build-up, the resurgence of Russia, remarkable growth in Asian economies and the phasing out of the American-led post-World War II Order in the wake of the end of the Cold War and America’s unipolar moment (1993-2003).

President Xi motivated the SCO member states to ‘build an SCO community with a shared future,’ and develop ‘a new type of international relations based on lasting peace, universal security, and common prosperity. He laid special emphasis on the implementation of the Qingdao Declaration and other 20 documents signed during the Summit especially the Treaty on Long-Term Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation; the 2019-2021 program of cooperation for combating ‘‘three evil forces’’ of terrorism, separatism, and extremism,’ and ‘the role of the SCO-Afghanistan Group to facilitate peace and reconstruction in Afghanistan.’

China’s President Xi Jinping inaugurated and chaired the Summit. In his speech, President Xi focused on a new development paradigm instead of security-centric relations, shared prosperity, win-win-regional cooperation within the SCO as harbinger of global cooperation, good-neighborly relations, renewed commitment to fight three evils of terrorism, separatism, extremism; and the establishment of an equitable and just world order. He urged the SCO member states to ‘stay committed to the Shanghai Spirit, surmount difficulties, defuse risks and meet challenges’ for ‘coordinated social and economic progress of various countries and resolve issues caused by unbalanced development,’ for achieving the objectives of the SCO Charter. He stressed to pursue ‘sustainable security,’ reject ‘the Cold War mentality and confrontation between blocs,’ ‘self-centered,

President Xi announced to train 2,000 law enforcement officers and 3,000 persons in human resource development from member states. He offered to use China’s Fengyun 2 weather satellites for meteorological service to all parties. He underlined the need ‘to advance the Belt and Road cooperation, ‘accelerate regional trade facilitation through the implementation of the Agreement on International Road Transport Facilitation.’ He announced to set up an RMB 30 billion (4.7 billion U.S. dollars) special lending facility within the framework of the SCO Inter-bank Consortium. To broaden international outreach of the SCO, President Xi announced to develop partnership

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rise of China. China will soon be the world’s largest economy and the second military power in the next three decades. Simultaneously, Russia has risen from the ashes and its resurgence is in the offing. Russia is again a military match for NATO, the dominant power in Central Asia and a critical player in the Middle East and in South Asia.

networks with SCO observer states, dialogue partners, the United Nations’ and ‘dialogue with the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and other international financial institutions, for ‘resolving hotspot issues and improving global governance. The SCO Secretary General Rashid Alimov welcomed the decision to it India and Pakistan as full of SCO and expressed the hope that the expansion will unveil the Organization’s unlimited potential. The Qingdao Declaration noted that ‘the new quality and dynamics’ have ‘emerged in various fields of cooperation’ since India and Pakistan’s ‘accession to the SCO.’

Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) represents a strategic initiative of China and Russia, which covers entire Eurasia. It now represents around 45% of the world population, 25% of the world GDP and 22% geographical expanse of the entire world. Interestingly, Hungary, Poland, Greece, Italy, and Austria desire closer relations with Russia. Seventeen European countries have agreed to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China’s vision to engage with Eurasia’s rim, the heartland and ultimately the world is gradually taking shape.

The President of Pakistan Mamnoon Hussain reaffirmed Pakistan’s commitment to implement SCO’s Charter and to work under the Shanghai Spirit, reiterated Pakistan’s readiness to act as a conduit between Eurasia, China, Central and South Asia; offered Pakistan-SCO Trade, Transit and Energy Corridor to through its territory; and willingness to connect EC to the six main road corridors of SCO. He stressed to follow a comprehensive effort to counter drug trafficking in the SCO region. He reaffirmed Pakistan’s role to peace and stability in Afghanistan to be achieved through an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned process of peace and reconciliation. He urged the SCO member states to consider the establishment of a development fund to fight terrorism and extremism.

The Eurasian heartland is now under Chinese and Russian influence after the establishment and expansion of the SCO. The focus of strategic competition of China and Russia with the US now is the entire Eurasian Rim, i.e. southern Europe, Middle East, South Asia and Southeast Asia. The European pillar of the American security order is in disarray. The expansion of the European Union is frozen; the UK has exited; southern Europeans are unhappy with the single currency; Turkey is alienated from NATO and the EU; and mass migration from the Middle East and Africa has revived racism and eroded European unity. The recent unilateral US trade tariffs, the threat of trade war with China, the failure of G7 meeting, US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and threatened sanctions against Europeans doing business with Tehran are weakening the Atlantic alliance.

Pakistan’s President held bilateral meetings with President Xi Jinping of China, President Putin of Russia, President Emomalii Rahmon of Tajikistan, President Rouhani of Iran and President Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan, on the sidelines of the SCO Summit. They exchanged views on strengthening bilateral relations and enhancing multifaceted cooperation in a number of areas under the ambit of the SCO.

The analysts believe that China is filling in the strategic gap emanating from the declining Atlantic alliance. China is playing the pivotal and lead role in the SCO and taking the SCO Community forward to achieve goals of economic development, peace, and security in accordance with the Shanghai Spirit, which essentially encomes the values of mutual trust, mutual respect, equality, respect for diverse civilizations and pursuit of shared development. China’s pragmatic vision to carve out a New World Order through the EC and the BRI, connecting more than 60 countries across Asia, Middle East, and

Analysis & Assessment At the beginning of the 20th century, even before the First World War, Halford Mackinder had commented in his treatise The Geographical Pivot of History that whoever controls the Eurasian heartland — from the Volga to the Yangtze and the Himalayas to the Arctic — would control the world.1 Nicholas Spykman contested the thesis and propounded that whoever controlled Eurasia’s rim would control the Eurasian heartland and the world.2 This shift is taking place now in the 21st century with the meteoric economic 1

Mackinder, Halford, The Geographical Pivot of History, The Geographical Journal, Vol. 170, No. 4, December 2004, pp. 298–321 2 Spykman, Nicholas, The Geography of the Peace, California: Harcourt, 1944

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Europe; is likely to transform regional and global political and economic landscape.

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Fifth, Pakistan needs to reinforce its determination to endorse the SCO’s resolve to fight ‘terrorism’ in letter and spirit. Pakistan’s inclusion in the SCO will help share with member states its experiences of combating the worst terrorist attacks and violent extremism in the last one and a half decade and improvement in the security and economic situation in Pakistan in 2016 onward. At the same time, it is to be noted that three evil forces the SCO intends to fight have a strong link and roots in Afghanistan. Moreover, extra- regional players including the US are still operating in Afghanistan. In this regard, SCO would require devising a long-term approach to deal with extraregional players. In this matrix, Pakistan could play a leading role with the help of SCO.

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Sixth, Iran aspires to as a full member of the SCO to work in unison with the SCO member states on BRI and EC projects and to offset the impact of the recent erratic and impulsive Trump decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal. Pakistan should SCO member states in ing Iran’s bid to be itted as a full member of the SCO. Pakistan also needs to improve bilateral relations with Iran and persuade Iran to the EC and BRI projects so that the idea for the mutual use of the Gwadar Port and the Chahbahar Port is accomplished. This will help achieve development objectives of the SCO.

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Seventh, Pakistan needs to develop close, cooperative and economic relations with Russia bilaterally and regionally. This close collaboration will dispel mistrust and help bring two countries closer and contribute to peace, reconciliation, reconstruction, and stability in Afghanistan.

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Eighth, Pakistan may consider importing oil, and gas from Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. Pakistan should institutionalize educational linkages with Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan by offering more scholarships, training, and capacity-building courses, and educational facilities in Pakistan’s prestigious institutions and universities.

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Ninth, Pakistan needs to develop a broader political understanding with the Afghan leadership and other important regional

Pakistan’s hip of the SCO is an important achievement in the foreign policy. It has unleashed multiple opportunities for Pakistan to cooperate with the SCO Community bilaterally and regionally. Pakistan needs to follow a proactive foreign policy to seize these opportunities. Following points need serious consideration in this regard. 

First, Pakistan needs to strengthen its economic cooperation and all-weather strategic cooperative partnership with China.

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Second, Pakistan needs to redouble its efforts for smooth implementation of the EC projects by following clearly defined of engagement, the optimal use of Pakistan’s geostrategic location as a trade corridor, and the Gwadar Port for greater economic linkages with neighbouring countries and cooperation with Central Asian states. These steps will strengthen cooperation with SCO and contribute to overall dynamics of the SCO.

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Third, it can be hoped that the entry of Pakistan and India as full of the SCO will facilitate a certain level of normalization of their relations and draw India closer to the Sino-Russian sphere. This is likely to be a long, painstaking and uncertain game as the US has given a distinct role to India as a partner to contain China’s rising power in Asia. China and Russia are endeavoring to prevent India’s complete military alignment with the US and will strive to play a mediatory role for the normalization of India-Pakistan relations. While Pakistan is fully committed to peace, India is less likely to change its hawkish and hegemonic approach in the foreseeable future. Fourth, it is interesting to note that seven member states of the SCO, with exception of India, reaffirmed their in the Qingdao Declaration for the implementation of the BRI and the development of the Eurasian Economic Union. It confirms India’s intention of non-cooperation on mega EC and BRI projects due to its hegemonic though unfounded claims over Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir. It will be a complex issue for the SCO to bring India on board in BRI.

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players included in SCO member states to achieve peace, reconciliation, reconstruction, and stability in Afghanistan. Pakistan should also bolster its meaningful engagement with Afghanistan through transit trade, reconstruction projects, economic assistance, education and training cum capacity-building courses. The realization of SCO vision of connectivity, cooperation, and development lies in durable peace in Afghanistan.

The inclusion of Pakistan as a full member provides the SCO with a link and route to South Asia and to the Indian Ocean. Pakistan must recalibrate its foreign policy to a development policy to become more relevant to the SCO and the New World Order. Pakistan enjoys an important geostrategic location. It has been blessed with enormous natural resources and very hard working people. By ing SCO, Pakistan could contribute to peaceful relations with neighbors as well as peace, security, stability, and development of the SCO region. Simultaneously, Pakistan must sync its engagement with the SCO with its internal reforms.

CONCLUSION The SCO has emerged as an important regional alliance and international organization. China, along with its SCO partners, is committed to constructing a New World Order encoming a multi-polar world. The BRI, of which EC is an integral part, is a manifestation of this New World Oder. The political clout and economic rise of China will serve as an anchor of global peace, global development, international justice, prosperity, stability, win-wincooperation and economic development in the SCO region and beyond. It is hard to imagine building global and regional security architecture without the SCO.

Pakistan’s inclusion in the SCO has dispelled the perception that Pakistan is isolated internationally in the wake of horrendous terrorist attacks in the last one and a half decade. Pakistan can share with SCO member states its experiences in combatting terrorism and extremism. Finally, Pakistan must consciously play its robust and constructive role in the SCO. It will enable Pakistan to actualize the vision of the founding fathers of Pakistan, Dr. Allama Mohammad Iqbal and the Quaid-i-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah, about the resurgence of Asia and repositioning of Pakistan as ‘pivot of the world placed on the frontiers around which the future of the world will revolve.’

The final shape of the New World Order will, however, depend heavily on the evolution of the relationship between China and the US. Their national interests can be served more by cooperation than confrontation. Their strategic confrontation could lead to instability in several regions but their cooperation could accelerate trade, investment, global growth and prosperity in the Eurasian heartland, its Rim and beyond. Only time will prove these analyses coming true or otherwise. But for the time being, the pendulum is swinging in favor of the SCO.

It is hard to imagine building global and regional security architecture and economic development paradigm without the SCO. The 18th SCO Summit has set the ground and agenda on the basis of China’s economic and political clout, EC and BRI as well as enormous natural resources in the SCO region for establishing a New World Order.

Prepared by: Ambassador (R) Tajammul Altaf Senior Research Associate, Institute of Policy Studies (IPS), Islamabad.

For queries: Syed Nadeem Farhat, Senior Research Coordinator, [email protected] | www.ips.org.pk

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