Forecasting In Hotel Front Office 1z4k34

FORECASTING A Statistical Analysis

“To guess is cheap….. To guess wrongly is expensive..”

Contents • • • • • • • • • • •

Meaning Definition Importance Asset allocation Staffing levels Inventory availability Forecasting formula Factors Forecasting room availability Forecasting data Number of expected room arivals

• • • • •

Number of expected walk-in’s Number of expected room stay-overs Number of expected no show rooms No of expected room understays. Number of room checkouts.

Definition Forecasting is a process of predicting or estimating the future based on past & present data. Or A planning tool that helps management in its attempts to cope with the uncertainly of the future, relying mainly on data from the past and present and analysis of trends.

Importance • It provides information about the potential future events & their consequences for the firm. • It is used by companies to determine how to allocate their budgets for an period of time. • It increases the confidence of the management to make important decisions.

Definition Forecasting is a tool used for predicting future demand based on past demand information

• It basically helps us/you to know approximately derive a future value having known its past and present values. Ex: Pharmaceutical company

How is it useful hotel industry Asset allocation: hotel can predict from the forecast what demand may be placed on the infrastructure. Ex: helps for Engineering & Maintenance. Staffing levels: depending on the data that is extracted from forecasting hotel management can easily plan the staff for the particular period of time. Ex: planning duty roster and recruiting employees in case of more requirement. Inventory availability: on above two basis we can do the inventory can made for particular time. Ex: No covers reserved for that day @ inventory can be conducted.

Forecasting formula Total no of rooms No of 000 (-) No of rooms stopovers (-) No of rooms reservation* %age of no shows (+) No of rooms under stay (+) No of rooms reservation (-) No of rooms overstay (-) ________________________________________ Total no of rooms available for sale

SAMPLE FORECASTING METHODS Ten day method :  Done for every 10 days, starting from first day of every month.  for this daily forecasted occupancy figures, including room arrivals, room departures, rooms sold & no of guests. No .of group commitments with a listing of each group name , arrival & departure dates, no of rooms reserved, no of guests & perhaps quoted room rates.  A compression of historical periods forecasted and actual room covered and occupancy percentage.  this is carried for all major days of the hotel business.

Three day method • Three day forecast is an updated report that reflects a more correct estimate of room availability. • Three day forecast is intended to guide management in fine-tuning employees schedules and adjusting room availability information. • Mainly done for overcoming of two half week business.