Wawasan Brunei 2035 2v1d6x
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Wawasan Brunei 2035 Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development Richard Leete, PhD UN Resident Coordinator UNDP Resident Representative for Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei Darussalam UNFPA Representative
19-20 February 2008 Brunei Economic Development Forum Singapore
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
Wawasan Brunei 2035 (Articulated in 2007)
National long term vision to 2035 - Strategies and 50 policies to progress towards vision over next 10 years - 5 year National Development plans
Brunei’s Vision goals (I) Nation recognised by accomplishments of its educated and highly skilled people (II) Quality of life among top 10 nations of world (III) Income per capital within top 10 nations of world
Where does Brunei stand in relation to human development and the MDGs? - Population of about 370,000 of whom 2 in 3 persons are Brunei citizens
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
What is human development?
Conceptual approach to development that goes beyond income Process of increasing people’s capabilities and choices • Vision of realization of human rights and human freedom
Multidimensional concept with 3 key measurable dimensions • to have capacity to live a long and healthy life • to be educated and knowledgeable • to have access to assets, decent employment and income
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
Human Development Index (HDI)
Composite index employed by UNDP for measuring key dimensions of human capabilities • Introduced in HDR of 1990, with an HDI for 1987, and has since become an annual must know Statistical indicators used in HDI are • life expectancy at birth • adult literacy and gross enrolment in primary, secondary and tertiary levels • per capita GDP (PPP US$) MDG indicators provide for broader coverage of HD • capture several dimensions not included in HDI, including on environment
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
HD Index 2005
HDI highly correlated with GDP per capita but dispersion high at lower GDP per capita levels Iceland
1.0 Malta
0.9
Singapore
Malaysia
High Human Development
0.8
Qatar
Brunei Darussalam
Indonesia China
0.7
Botswana Equatorial Guinea
India
0.6
Swaziland
0.5 0.4 0.3 Brunei's 2005 HDI is 0.894 ranked 30 of 177 countries
0.2 0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9 1.0 GDP Index 2005
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
Ratio over average of top five
(%) 100
Brunei Darussalam’s progress relative to world’s top 5 HDI countries: to leapfrog other countries requires big increase in education GDP Index
Life expectancy Index
95 HDI
90
Education Index
85 Top five countries in 2005: 1) Iceland 2) Norway 3) Australia 4) Canada 5) Ireland
80
75
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
Perlis 0.785
HDI for Brunei Darussalam, Malaysian states and Singapore, 2005 Kelantan 0.728
Kedah 0.741
0.85 or more 0.80 – 0.84
Pulau Pinang 0.834 Perak 0.790
Selangor 0.823 W.P. Kuala Lumpur 0.868
0.75 – 0.79
Terengganu 0.813
Less than 0.75
Pahang 0.776 BRUNEI DARUSSALAM 0.894
N. Sembilan 0.801 Melaka 0.810
Johor 0.804
High HD: > 0.8 Medium HD: 0.5 to 0.8 Brunei’s 2005 HDI: 0.894 Malaysia’s 2005 HDI: 0.811 Singapore’s 2005 HDI: 0.922
Singapore 0.922
Sarawak 0.763
Sabah 0.735
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
Sustained moderate levels of economic growth in Brunei Darussalam since mid-1980s Average annual growth rate
(%) 30 Exports
25
Imports
20 15 10 GDP
5 0 -5 -10 1975-’80
‘80-’85
‘85-’90
‘90-’95
‘95-2000
2000-’04
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
Most Bruneians employed in public sector (%) 100
Employed persons
90
5.0 5.7 4.1
80 70
2.0 5.0
2.9
3.8 13.3
18.6 14.4
60
10.8
50
6.6
5.1 5.4
2.1
1.4 2.7 8.5 1.8 8.4 13.7 3.3 5.6
30 48.8
54.6
Electricity, gas and water supply
Transport, storage and communications Finance, insurance, real estate, renting and business activities Community, social and personal services
10 0
1981
Manufacturing
Wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants
40
20
Mining and quarrying
Construction
3.0
43.0
Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing
'91
2001
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
While almost all Brunei children enroll in primary and secondary school, tertiary enrolment remains low (%) 100
Net enrolment ratio
90
Primary school
80 70 60 Total Boys Girls
50 Secondary School
40 30 20 10
Tertiary School
0 1971
1981
1991
2001
By 2001 most Bruneians had attended school and the majority had attained secondary level or above – a generation ago, about one third had never attended 1971 Primary 73%
Never attended school 31%
Ever attended school 69% Secondary 36% Tertiary 1% 114.4 thousand
2001 Primary 47% Ever attended school 94%
Never attended school 6%
Secondary 48% Tertiary 5% 298.6 thousand
Ratio of girls' enrolment ratio to that of boys
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
Small differences in enrollments of boys and girls at primary and secondary schooling contrasts with large differences at the tertiary level
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8
Primary Secondary Tertiary
0.6
1971
‘81
‘91
2001
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
Labour force participation of Brunei women continues to increase sharply
Labour force participation rates
(%) 100 Male
1991
80 2001
2001 Female
60
1991
40
20
0 15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
Infant and child mortality levels now extremely low in Brunei Darussalam
mortality rate per 1,000 live births
45 40 35 Infant mortality 30 25 20 Under-5 mortality 15 10 5 0 1970
'75
'80 '85 '90 (3 year moving average)
'95
2000
'03
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
Immunization coverage of infants
(%) 100 99
Immunization of Brunei infants now almost universal 2001
98 97
1992
96 95 94 93 92 91
Tuberculosis Diphtheria/Tetanus/ Whooping Cough
Poliomyelitis
Hepatitis B
Measles, Mumps and Rubella
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
Conclusions
BD has high HD and achieved MDGs. Compared to top 5 countries, BD’s achievements in health exemplary: education and per capita GDP, however, lagging - Experience of Singapore suggests that with human capital investments in knowledge, innovation and ideas, leapfrogging is possible - Further human capital investments essential for k-economy
Experience of Malta and Luxembourg shows that having a small population size does not preclude having high human development and robust economic development Economic diversification requires continuous reassessment of policy direction and the human development required to it
19-20 February 2008 Brunei Economic Development Forum Singapore
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
Wawasan Brunei 2035 (Articulated in 2007)
National long term vision to 2035 - Strategies and 50 policies to progress towards vision over next 10 years - 5 year National Development plans
Brunei’s Vision goals (I) Nation recognised by accomplishments of its educated and highly skilled people (II) Quality of life among top 10 nations of world (III) Income per capital within top 10 nations of world
Where does Brunei stand in relation to human development and the MDGs? - Population of about 370,000 of whom 2 in 3 persons are Brunei citizens
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
What is human development?
Conceptual approach to development that goes beyond income Process of increasing people’s capabilities and choices • Vision of realization of human rights and human freedom
Multidimensional concept with 3 key measurable dimensions • to have capacity to live a long and healthy life • to be educated and knowledgeable • to have access to assets, decent employment and income
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
Human Development Index (HDI)
Composite index employed by UNDP for measuring key dimensions of human capabilities • Introduced in HDR of 1990, with an HDI for 1987, and has since become an annual must know Statistical indicators used in HDI are • life expectancy at birth • adult literacy and gross enrolment in primary, secondary and tertiary levels • per capita GDP (PPP US$) MDG indicators provide for broader coverage of HD • capture several dimensions not included in HDI, including on environment
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
HD Index 2005
HDI highly correlated with GDP per capita but dispersion high at lower GDP per capita levels Iceland
1.0 Malta
0.9
Singapore
Malaysia
High Human Development
0.8
Qatar
Brunei Darussalam
Indonesia China
0.7
Botswana Equatorial Guinea
India
0.6
Swaziland
0.5 0.4 0.3 Brunei's 2005 HDI is 0.894 ranked 30 of 177 countries
0.2 0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9 1.0 GDP Index 2005
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
Ratio over average of top five
(%) 100
Brunei Darussalam’s progress relative to world’s top 5 HDI countries: to leapfrog other countries requires big increase in education GDP Index
Life expectancy Index
95 HDI
90
Education Index
85 Top five countries in 2005: 1) Iceland 2) Norway 3) Australia 4) Canada 5) Ireland
80
75
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
Perlis 0.785
HDI for Brunei Darussalam, Malaysian states and Singapore, 2005 Kelantan 0.728
Kedah 0.741
0.85 or more 0.80 – 0.84
Pulau Pinang 0.834 Perak 0.790
Selangor 0.823 W.P. Kuala Lumpur 0.868
0.75 – 0.79
Terengganu 0.813
Less than 0.75
Pahang 0.776 BRUNEI DARUSSALAM 0.894
N. Sembilan 0.801 Melaka 0.810
Johor 0.804
High HD: > 0.8 Medium HD: 0.5 to 0.8 Brunei’s 2005 HDI: 0.894 Malaysia’s 2005 HDI: 0.811 Singapore’s 2005 HDI: 0.922
Singapore 0.922
Sarawak 0.763
Sabah 0.735
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
Sustained moderate levels of economic growth in Brunei Darussalam since mid-1980s Average annual growth rate
(%) 30 Exports
25
Imports
20 15 10 GDP
5 0 -5 -10 1975-’80
‘80-’85
‘85-’90
‘90-’95
‘95-2000
2000-’04
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
Most Bruneians employed in public sector (%) 100
Employed persons
90
5.0 5.7 4.1
80 70
2.0 5.0
2.9
3.8 13.3
18.6 14.4
60
10.8
50
6.6
5.1 5.4
2.1
1.4 2.7 8.5 1.8 8.4 13.7 3.3 5.6
30 48.8
54.6
Electricity, gas and water supply
Transport, storage and communications Finance, insurance, real estate, renting and business activities Community, social and personal services
10 0
1981
Manufacturing
Wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants
40
20
Mining and quarrying
Construction
3.0
43.0
Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing
'91
2001
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
While almost all Brunei children enroll in primary and secondary school, tertiary enrolment remains low (%) 100
Net enrolment ratio
90
Primary school
80 70 60 Total Boys Girls
50 Secondary School
40 30 20 10
Tertiary School
0 1971
1981
1991
2001
By 2001 most Bruneians had attended school and the majority had attained secondary level or above – a generation ago, about one third had never attended 1971 Primary 73%
Never attended school 31%
Ever attended school 69% Secondary 36% Tertiary 1% 114.4 thousand
2001 Primary 47% Ever attended school 94%
Never attended school 6%
Secondary 48% Tertiary 5% 298.6 thousand
Ratio of girls' enrolment ratio to that of boys
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
Small differences in enrollments of boys and girls at primary and secondary schooling contrasts with large differences at the tertiary level
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8
Primary Secondary Tertiary
0.6
1971
‘81
‘91
2001
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
Labour force participation of Brunei women continues to increase sharply
Labour force participation rates
(%) 100 Male
1991
80 2001
2001 Female
60
1991
40
20
0 15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
Infant and child mortality levels now extremely low in Brunei Darussalam
mortality rate per 1,000 live births
45 40 35 Infant mortality 30 25 20 Under-5 mortality 15 10 5 0 1970
'75
'80 '85 '90 (3 year moving average)
'95
2000
'03
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
Immunization coverage of infants
(%) 100 99
Immunization of Brunei infants now almost universal 2001
98 97
1992
96 95 94 93 92 91
Tuberculosis Diphtheria/Tetanus/ Whooping Cough
Poliomyelitis
Hepatitis B
Measles, Mumps and Rubella
Wawasan Brunei 2035; Beyond the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and High Human Development
Conclusions
BD has high HD and achieved MDGs. Compared to top 5 countries, BD’s achievements in health exemplary: education and per capita GDP, however, lagging - Experience of Singapore suggests that with human capital investments in knowledge, innovation and ideas, leapfrogging is possible - Further human capital investments essential for k-economy
Experience of Malta and Luxembourg shows that having a small population size does not preclude having high human development and robust economic development Economic diversification requires continuous reassessment of policy direction and the human development required to it
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